SSA Baby Names Predictions Update

The Social Security list of the top 1,000 baby names for 2010 is out! Let's see how I did predicting the top risers and fallers:

Fastest Rising Names (Girls):

• Everly: Strike out, not in top 1,000 for 2010. Next year, for sure.
• Tiana: Nailed it! Ranked #604 in 2009, #334 in 2010! This was the third-fastest riser (behind Maci and Giuliana).
• Aurora: eh. This name rose an anemic 15 spots.
• Cecilia: Wrong! down 11 spots.
• Harlow: Yes! #904 in 2009, #778 in 2010. I said it would go up 100+ spots; it went up 126.
• Bristol: Yes! Went from #666 to #562. Over 100 spots again.
• Bonus prediction: Amalia: Nope, didn't happen.

Fastest Rising Names (Boys):

• Archer: #681* in 2009, #550 in 2010. The SSA does a list of "Change in Popularity," but it only accounts for names that were in the top 500. If Archer were included on that list, +131 would make it the #5 fastest riser of 2010.
• Bentley: Called it! Top riser for boys in 2010. Up 414 spots over 2009.
• Jaxton: Modest success. Rose from #853 to #798.

Fastest Falling Names (Girls):

• Analia: Called it! This was absolute rock bottom for falling names. Went from #330 to #802. I am so relieved.
• Miley: Modest success. Dropped 28 spots.
• Yaretzi: Completely and utterly wrong — it rose 125 spots! There must be some celebrity in Spanish-language media that I am unaware of.

 Fastest Falling Names (Boys):

• Aaden: Called it! This terrible spelling was the fastest falling name for boys.
• Peyton: Wrong-o. Only lost one spot, which is basically the same as holding steady.
• Jacoby: Modest success — it lost 29 spots.

I think I did pretty well! I correctly predicted the fastest fallers for both boys and girls, and I picked a couple of good risers (Bentley and Tiana). I'm kicking myself for not choosing Maci as well — I picked Bentley and didn't even consider Maci. I didn't have enough faith in the power of Teen Mom.

My worst miss was Yaretzi. Not only did it not fall, it rose substantially! I must just not be plugged in to the pop culture reference fueling its rise.

*In addition to releasing the 2010 list, the SSA has slightly revised the 2009 list — Archer used to be #679 in 2009, now it is #681.

Baby Name Predictions

The Social Security list of the top 1,000 baby names for 2010 will be coming out in the next few weeks. The Baby Name Wizard always has a contest seeing who can predict the fastest rising and fastest falling names of the year, and I thought it might be fun to write down my predictions in public to see how I do.

If you are into modern baby names, leave your own guesses in the comments!

My predictions:


Fastest Rising Names (Girls):

• Everly: not in the top 1,000 in 2009, but I think it will break onto the scene in a big way for 2010. It could be the new Neveah. Ever is right behind!
• Tiana: ranked #609 (and falling) in 2009, but The Princess and the Frog will change that. It came out at the end of 2009, so it had the full year of 2010 to rise.
• Aurora: this is a risky choice because Aurora was already #217 in 2009, so it doesn't have much room to rise. Still, it is the title character of 2010's most popular telenovela, and telenovela names have a track record of spiking popularity.
• Cecilia: Pam and Jim on The Office named their baby Cecilia. It might not rise very far because SSA counts Cecilia and Cecelia as different names.
• Harlow: All of those androgynous H names are hot right now — Harper, Hadley, etc. I'll take Harlow for +100 spots on the chart.
• Bristol: She won't go away.
• Bonus prediction: Amalia will make the top 1,000 for the first time.

Fastest Rising Names (Boys):

• Archer: debuted in 2009 at #679. Similar-sounding Asher is at #165 and still climbing, so I think Archer will gain ground.
• Bentley: we already saw a dramatic jump (from #940 in 2008 to #518 in 2009) thanks to MTV's Teen Mom Maci and her little Bentley. They were still in the news in 2010 and I think this name will rise even more.
• Jaxton: The Jackson trend is completely out of hand. It's only a matter of time.

Fastest Falling Names (Girls):

• Analia: This was the fastest-rising name for girls in 2009, thanks to a telenovela. I am hoping that it falls back into obscurity, both because it looks like "pertaining to the anus" and because I worry that someone, somewhere, might mistake Amalia for Analia.
• Miley: Miley Cyrus had a bad year, and I think that this name rests on her fortunes. It burst onto the list at a shocking #278 in 2007, peaked at #128 in 2008, and slipped to #189 in 2009. I think it will lose at least 100 places in 2010.
• Yaretzi: big spike last year — must be some celebrity I don't know about

 Fastest Falling Names (Boys):

• Aaden: Jon & Kate are finally off the air. Hopefully, they will take their spelling issues with them.
• Peyton: As it rises for girls, it will fall for boys.
• Jacoby: The Red Sox were terrible last year.