Thursday, April 21, 2011

Baby Name Predictions

The Social Security list of the top 1,000 baby names for 2010 will be coming out in the next few weeks. The Baby Name Wizard always has a contest seeing who can predict the fastest rising and fastest falling names of the year, and I thought it might be fun to write down my predictions in public to see how I do.

If you are into modern baby names, leave your own guesses in the comments!

My predictions:

Fastest Rising Names (Girls):
  • Everly: not in the top 1,000 in 2009, but I think it will break onto the scene in a big way for 2010. It could be the new Neveah. Ever is right behind!
  • Tiana: ranked #609 (and falling) in 2009, but The Princess and the Frog will change that. It came out at the end of 2009, so it had the full year of 2010 to rise.
  • Aurora: this is a risky choice because Aurora was already #217 in 2009, so it doesn't have much room to rise. Still, it is the title character of 2010's most popular telenovela, and telenovela names have a track record of spiking popularity.
  • Cecilia: Pam and Jim on The Office named their baby Cecilia. It might not rise very far because SSA counts Cecilia and Cecelia as different names.
  • Harlow: All of those androgynous H names are hot right now — Harper, Hadley, etc. I'll take Harlow for +100 spots on the chart.
  • Bristol: She won't go away.
  • Bonus prediction: Amalia will make the top 1,000 for the first time.
Fastest Rising Names (Boys):
  • Archer: debuted in 2009 at #679. Similar-sounding Asher is at #165 and still climbing, so I think Archer will gain ground.
  • Bentley: we already saw a dramatic jump (from #940 in 2008 to #518 in 2009) thanks to MTV's Teen Mom Maci and her little Bentley. They were still in the news in 2010 and I think this name will rise even more.
  • Jaxton: The Jackson trend is completely out of hand. It's only a matter of time.
Fastest Falling Names (Girls):
  • Analia: This was the fastest-rising name for girls in 2009, thanks to a telenovela. I am hoping that it falls back into obscurity, both because it looks like "pertaining to the anus" and because I worry that someone, somewhere, might mistake Amalia for Analia.
  • Miley: Miley Cyrus had a bad year, and I think that this name rests on her fortunes. It burst onto the list at a shocking #278 in 2007, peaked at #128 in 2008, and slipped to #189 in 2009. I think it will lose at least 100 places in 2010.
  • Yaretzi: big spike last year — must be some celebrity I don't know about
 Fastest Falling Names (Boys):
  • Aaden: Jon & Kate are finally off the air. Hopefully, they will take their spelling issues with them.
  • Peyton: As it rises for girls, it will fall for boys.
  • Jacoby: The Red Sox were terrible last year.


Robert J. said...

How have the Harry Potter names been doing in recent years? Has Hermione had an upsurge? I bet there's even been a Severus or two in the past few years, although I doubt that's made it into the top 10,000.

Caitlin GD Hopkins said...

Good question!

Not many are on the top 1,000 list, but I am a nerd and have downloaded the expanded list, which includes every name that has at least 5 uses.

Harry is ranked #650, but has actually declined — it was #480 in 1997, when the first book was published.

Ron and Ronald have also declined (Ronald was #341 last year, #164 in 1997).

There were 47 Hermiones born in the US last year — well off the top 1,000, but respectable.

There may have been a Severus or two, but there were certainly fewer than 5 because it is not on the list. Same with Albus. There were 24 boys named Sirius — that is probably HP-related because there were none in 2000 (it first shows up on the list in 2003).

Robert J. said...

I'd bet Luna's had an uptick.

Caitlin GD Hopkins said...

Yes — a big jump for Luna. It was not on the list until 2003, when it debuted at #890. It has risen every year since and was #322 in 2009.

Sophia said...

I can't!!!! wait to see what happens with the new name list comes out from the SSA. I just wish they didn't wait until May to release this info.